Overview

Background

Teaching

Research

SDG

Consulting

Images

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point to titles to read abstracts

Models

Some of the papers listed below feature simulation models, and many of those models can be simulated online without special software.
A hyperlink at the end of an entry indicates an online version. To request copies of models without hyperlinks, send me an email.

Current Research

Money Supply Dynamics in Ukraine: SD model of monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Ukrainian economy.
Multi-Industry Model of North Dakota's Economy: Multi-industry SD model of workforce supply and demand in the context of a boom-and-bust oil-dependent state economy.
Structural Development of the U.S. Economy: SD modeling of the historical evolution of the U.S. economy, with the shifting structural dominance of agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors.

Papers-in-Progress

A Mulit-Industry System Dynamics Model of the Euro Area, with S. Nedvaraityte
Modeling Price Dynamics in the Euro Area with System Dynamics and Input-Output Modeling, with S. Nedvaraityte
Marriage and Mortality Dynamics in Lithuania
Modeling the E-Cigarettes Dilemma, with O. Ivanov and A. Selya.

Publications

peer-reviewed +

invited •

other o

+ Teaching Endogenous Money with Systems Thinking and Simulation Tools. International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education (forthcoming) model
+ The Classical Cobweb Theorem and Real Commodity Market Behavior, with S. Glöser, J. Hartwig, and M. Faulstich. System Dynamics Review (forthcoming)
+ Disappointing Outcomes: Can Implementation Modeling Help? with E. Bardach. In Borgonovi, Pessina, & Bianchi (eds.), Outcome-Based Performance Management in the Public Sector. Springer (forthcoming) model
+ Model-based Policy Design that Takes Implementation Seriously, in E. Johnston (ed.), Governance in the Information Era. New York: Routledge, 2015
+ The Danger of Float: the Case of Ukraine, with O. Faryna. Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference; Cambridge, USA, 2015
+ Dynamic Regional Economic Modeling: a Systems Approach, with Andrzej Pawluczuk. Economics and Management 4, 2014
+ A Systems Education at Bergen, with P. Davidsen, B. Kopainsky, E. Moxnes, and M. Pedercini. Systems 2(2), 2014
+ A System Dynamics Approach to Sea Lice Control in Norway, with K. Hamza and K. Rich. Aquaculture Economics & Management 18(4), 2014
+ Low Probability of Initiating nirS Transcription Explains Observed Gas Kinetics and Growth of Bacteria Switching from Aerobic Respiration to Denitrification, with J. Hassan, L. Bergaust, and L. Bakken. PloS Computational Biology 10(11), 2014
+ Teaching Policy Design, Using a Case Study of Unintended Consequences when the EU Regulates Hospital Doctors' Hours, with A. Tadesse, M. Li, and G. Lewis. Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference; Cambridge, USA, 2013.
+ Do Feedback Diagrams Promote Learning in Macroeconomics? International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education, 1(4) 2010
+ What Can System Dynamics Learn from the Public Policy Implementation Literature? Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 27(4), 2010
+ Empowering Students to Compare Ways Economists Think: The Case of the Housing Bubble." International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education 1(1-2), 2009
+ Teaching Economics as if Time Mattered. In J. Reardon (ed.), Handbook for Pluralist Economics Education. New York: Routledge, 2009
+ The Feedback Method of Teaching Macroeconomics: Is it Effective? System Dynamics Review, 23(4) 2007.

Dissertation

The Feedback Method: A System Dynamics Approach to Teaching Macroeconomics. PhD dissertation, University of Bergen, Norway, 2007. https://bora.uib.no/handle/1956/2239.

Other Papers and Presentations

peer-reviewed +

invited •

other o

+ Modeling Price Dynamics in the Euro Area with System Dynamics and Input-Output Modeling, with S. Nedvaraityte. International System Dynamics Conference; Cambridge, United States, 2017.
o Dynamic Input-Output Modeling of North Dakota's Economy: A System Dynamics Approach.   European Conference on Operational Research; Poznan, Poland, 2016.
+ Endogenous Money. International System Dynamics Conference; Delft, the Netherlands, 2016.
o Outlook for Price Dynamics in Europe: Inflation or Deflation? with S. Nedvaraityte and M. Constantinescu.   Business Systems Laboratory International Symposium; Vilnius, Lithuania, 2016.
+ Disappointing Outcomes: Can Implementation Modeling Help?   with E. Bardach. Azienda Publicca Symposium on the Paradigm Shift from Output to Outcome Measures in the Public Sector; Palermo, Italy, 2016.
• Endogenous Feedback Perspective on Money in a Stock-Flow Consistent Model. Open Research Seminar, National Bank of Ukraine. 2016.
o Teaching Monetary Policy with Contrasting Methods, with M. Crook. Developments in Economics Education Conference; Birmingham, UK, 2015.
+ Public Policy Implementation Modeling: the Classic Case of EDA in Oakland. with E. Bardach. International System Dynamics Conference; Cambridge, USA, 2015.
+ Learning Economics with Dynamic Modeling. A Norwegian-Ukrainian Collaboration Project, with I. Stelmashenko and I. Lukianenko. Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference; Cambridge, USA, 2015.
o Learning Economics with Dynamic Modeling: an International Collaboration, with Iryna Lukianenko. Developments in Economics Education Conference; Exeter, UK, 2013.
• Modeling Mortality in Lithuania.   European System Dynamics Workshop; Istanbul, Turkey, 2013.
• MacroLab: An Interactive Stock-and-Flow Macroeconomic Model. Stock-and-Flow-Consistent Workshop; Dijon, France, 2013.
• Colombia's Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences.   Plenary session, Colombian System Dynamics Conference; Cali, Colombia, 2012.
+ Modeling Fertility in Lithuania: A Preliminary Report.   International System Dynamics Conference; St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2012.
• A Simulation Model of Demography & Economy in Lithuania. European Conference on Operational Research; Vilnius, Lithuania, 2012.
+ The Role of System Dynamics Approaches in Aquatic Disease Management: an Application to Sea Lice Control in Norway, with K. Hamza and K. Rich. Proceedings , International System Dynamics Conference; St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2012.
o Diagramming a Feedback Model of Emigration, with R. Činčytė.   European Conference on Operational Research; Vilnius, Lithuania, 2012.
o Getting Started with Simulation Software. Developments in Economics Education Conference; London, UK, 2011.
+ Implementation Modeling. Fall Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy and Management; Washington, USA, 2011.
o A Simulation Tool for the Rest of Us. Fall Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy and Management; Washington, USA, 2011.
+ Exploratory Policy Design, with L. Shi. Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference; Washington, USA, 2011.
+ A Note on the Bathtub Analogy, with E. Moxnes, P. Davidsen, and M. Sánchez. International System Dynamics Conference; Washington, USA, 2011.
• Will Latin America Grow Old Before It Grows Rich? Latin American System Dynamics Conference; Medellin, Colombia, 2010.
• Dynamic Strategic Planning. International Week Conference, Centrum Business School of the Catholic University of Peru; Lima, Peru, 2010.
• What Can System Dynamics Learn from the Public Policy Implementation Literature?   European System Dynamics Workshop; Palermo, Italy, 2010.
o Enabling Students to Compare Theories in Media Stories about the Economy. Developments in Economics Education Conference; Cardiff, UK, 2009.
+ Capturing the Dynamics of a Psychiatric Illness, with J. Hassan.   International System Dynamics Conference; Albuquerque, USA, 2009.
• Learning Macroeconomics with MacroLab.   Latin American System Dynamics Conference, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007.
o Sachs' Poverty Trap Theory:  A System Dynamics Translation.   Latin American System Dynamics Conference; Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007.
o MacroLab: Using Simulation to Teach Macroeconomics. Developments in Economics Education Conference; Cambridge, UK, 2007.  
+ MacroLab: A Simulation Model & Interactive Learning Environment for Teaching Undergraduate Macroeconomics.   Conference of the International Confederation of Associations for Pluralism in Economics; Salt Lake City, USA, 2007.
+ Feedback Loops in the Macro Instructor's Toolkit. Allied Social Sciences Association Conference; Chicago, USA, 2007.
• The Feedback Method:  Model-Based Learning in Macroeconomics. Conference of the Faculty of Computers and Information, Cairo University; Cairo, Egypt, 2007.
+ Simplifying Learning Environments for Introductory Students. Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference; Boston, USA, 2005.
o MacroLab: A Teaching Model of the US Economy.   International System Dynamics Conference; Oxford, UK, 2004.
o Preview of MacroLab: A Teaching Tool for Macroeconomics.   Economics Literacy Workshop; Wilmington, USA (2004)
o Using Stocks and Flows to Learn Economics. Midwest Conference on Student Learning in Economics; Akron, USA (2004).
o Does a Model Facilitate Learning? with L. Weathers & R. Goldstein,  CLExchange, 13(4), 2004.
o Model-Facilitated Learning of Essential Macroeconomics.   International System Dynamics Conference; New York, USA, 2003.
+ A Systems Approach to Virginia's Education Standards.   International System Dynamics Conference; Bergen, Norway, 2000.
o A Systems Approach to Education Policy and Administration. Systems Thinking and Systems Modeling Conference; Portland, USA, 2000.
o Teaching Government with System Dynamics.   Systems Thinking and Systems Modeling Conference; Portland, USA. 2000.
o Wellhead Prices Predicted to Fall $3, Jefferson Business (January 13, 1983)
o Energy: Security with Confidence. In W. Valis (ed.) The Future Under President Reagan, Westport: Arlington House, 1981
+ The Problem of Heroin, with J.Q. Wilson and M.H. Moore. The Public Interest, Fall 1972.

Centennial History Books

Becoming Bank of Botetourt. Roanoke, USA: Botetourt Bankshares, 2000
A Century of Service. Roanoke, USA: R&B Communications, 1999

Education Research for the Jefferson Institute for Public Policy; USA (1997-2000)
Value-Added Accountability: A Systems Solution to the School Accreditation Problem
•.Year 2000 Priorities for K-12
Car Tax Cuts: How Should Localities be Reimbursed?
Deficient Diplomas: Is It Time for A Graduate Warranty Program?
Raising Student Attendance: Some Low-Cost Strategies
2000 New Teachers: Where Are They Needed Most?
Funding Virginia's Schools: An Opportunity for Efficiency and Equity
Understanding Virginia's Report Card: Why Standardized Test Scores Vary

 Election '88: A Six-Part Series. The Fincastle Herald, April-November 1988
• Primaries Change Nominating Process
• Will Winner Hinge on Running Mate?
• Should You Trust the Political Polls?
• The Real Race Begins
• Landslide or Erosion for Bush?
• The George Bush I Know

 Oil and Gas Research in the Monday Morning Report, Charles Owens & Associates, 1977-79
• Winter '77 Supply/Demand Outlook
• State Regulatory Outlook: Texas
• Crude Oil Controls
• Winter '79 Supply/Demand Outlook

Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,1970-72
• Heroin Abuse in Boston
: The Dynamics of the Heroin Market and the Response of the Criminal Justice System
• Formulating Education Policy Under Uncertainty

• Crime Rates and Demographic Variables

• Predicting Recidivism: A Probability Model of Re-arrest Patterns

• An Evaluation of an Evaluation: The Case of Head Start

• The Deterrence of Crime in Boston, 1950-1970

• The Disproportionately Large Number of Black Arrestees: Some 'Mechanistic' Explanations

• Does Crime Pay?

• An Analysis of the Behavior of Local Housing Authorities in Massachusetts

• Poverty Planning in Massachusetts: Public Education (with R. Cole and M. Weinstein)


Texas Tech University, 1966-70
• Political Allegiance: Participation, Self-Confidence, and Support for the Political System
• Social Research in the Soviet Union: A Content Analysis

• Political Participation by Young People: Involvement as a Function of Attitude Intensity

• Candidate Selection: A Study of Primary Elections for the Oregon Legislature